Kevin D. Hoover
  • Kevin D. Hoover

  • Professor of Economics
  • Economics
  • 213 Soc Sciences, Durham, NC 27708
  • Campus Box 90097
  • Phone: (919) 660-1800
  • Fax: +1 919 660 8974
  • Homepage
  • Curriculum Vitae
  • Overview

    Professor Hoover's research interests include macroeconomics, monetary economics, the history of economics, and the philosophy and methodology of empirical economics. His recent work in economics has focused on the application of causal search methodologies for structural vector autoregression, the history of microfoundational programs in macroeconomics, and Roy Harrod's early work on dynamic macroeconomics. In philosophy, he has concentrated on issues related to causality, especially in economics, and on reductionism -- the philosophical counterpart to microfoundations. Recent publications include:
    • "Trygve Haavelmo's Experimental Methodology and Scenario Analysis in a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression" (Econometric Theory, 2015), 
    • "Reductionism in Economics:  Intentionality and Eschatological Justification in the Microfoundations of Macroeconomics" (Philosophy of Science 2015), 
    • "Mathematical Economics Comes to America:  Charles S. Peirce’s Engagement with Cournot’s Recherches sur les Principes Mathematiques de la Théorie des Richesses" (Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2015), 
    • "The Genesis of Samuelson and Solow’s Price-Inflation Phillips Curve" (History of Economics Review, 2015), 
    • "Solow's Harrod: Transforming Cyclical Dynamics into a Model of Long-run Growth" (European Journal of the History of Economic Thought 2015), 
    • "In the Kingdom of Solovia:  The Rise of Growth Economics at MIT, 1956-1970" (History of Political Economy 2014), 
    • “Still Puzzling: Evaluating the Price Puzzle in an Empirically Identified Structural Vector Autoregression” (Empirical Economics, 2014),
    • "On the Reception of Haavelmo's Econometric Thought" (Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2014) – winner of the History of Economics Society Best Paper Award in 2015.  
  • Bio

    Kevin D. Hoover joined Duke University in 2006 as Professor of Economics and Philosophy. He was previously professor and chair of the Economics Department of the University of California, Davis.

    Hoover was educated at the College of William and Mary, the University of St. Andrews, and Balliol and Nuffield Colleges of the University of Oxford. He had worked in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and held positions as a Heyworth Prize Research Fellow at Nuffield College, Oxford and lecturer in economics at Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford.

    Hoover’s teaching and research interests include monetary and macroeconomics, econometric search algorithms, causal modeling, the methodology of economics and the philosophy of science applied to economics, and the history of economics.

    Hoover is a former fellow of the National Humanities Center and a past recipient of grants from the National Science Foundation and the Trent Foundation. He has organized conferences in the history of economics and economic methodology -- most recently the 2008 conference: "Robert Solow and the Development of Growth Economics."

    The author of more than eighty academic articles, four books, and has edited eight volumes of articles. He has presented his work widely in conferences and seminars in universities, central banks, and government departments throughout the world. In 2009, for instance, he presented an invited lectures, “Was Harrod Right?” to the 5th International Keynes Conference: On Modern Finance and Keynes, Sophia University, Tokyo; “Identity, Structure, and Causation in Economic Models,” to the Conference on Modeling the World: Perspectives from Biology and Economics, University of Helsinki"; and "Microfoundational Programs," to the First International Symposium on the History of Economic Thought, University of São Paulo, Brazil.

    He is past President of the History of Economics Society and past Chair of the International Network for Economic Method. He was for many years an editor of the Journal of Economic Methodology and is curretly an associate editor of the journal History of Political Economy. He serves on a number of editorial boards.
  • Specialties

    • History of Economics
    • Macroeconomics
  • Education

      • Ph.D.,
      • University of Oxford (UK),
      • 1985
      • M.A.,
      • University of Oxford (UK),
      • 1983
      • B.A.,
      • University of Oxford (UK),
      • 1979
  • Awards, Honors and Distinctions

      • Best Paper Award,
      • History of Economics Society,
      • January 2015
  • Recent Publications

      • KD Hoover.
      • (2015).
      • Reductionism in Economics: Intentionality and Eschatological Justification in the Microfoundations of Macroeconomics.
      • Philosophy of Science
      • ,
      • 82
      • (4)
      • ,
      • 689-711.
      • [web]
      • V Halsmayer and KD Hoover.
      • (2015).
      • Solow's Harrod: Transforming macroeconomic dynamics into a model of long-run growth.
      • The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought
      • ,
      • 1-36.
      • [web]
      • K Hoover and K Juselius.
      • (2015).
      • TRYGVE HAAVELMO’S EXPERIMENTAL METHODOLOGY AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS IN A COINTEGRATED VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION.
      • Econometric Theory
      • ,
      • 31
      • (02)
      • ,
      • 249-274.
      • [web]
      • KD Hoover.
      • (Accepted, 2014).
      • On the Reception of Haavelmo’s Econometric Thought.
      • Journal of the History of Economic Thought
      • ,
      • 36
      • (01)
      • ,
      • 45-65.
      • [web]
      Publication Description

      Trygve Haavelmo’s The Probability Approach in Econometrics (1944) has been widely regarded as the foundation document of modern econometrics. Nevertheless, its significance has been interpreted in widely different ways. Some modern economists regard it as a blueprint for a provocative, but ultimately unsuccessful, program dominated by the need for a priori theoretical identification of econometric models. They call for new techniques that better acknowledge the interrelationship of theory and data. Others credit Haavelmo with an approach that focuses on statistical adequacy rather than theoretical identification. They see many of Haavelmo’s deepest insights as having been unduly neglected. The current paper uses bibliometric techniques and a close reading of econometrics articles and textbooks to trace the way in which the economics profession received, interpreted, and transmitted Haavelmo’s ideas. A key irony is that the first group calls for a reform of econometric thinking that goes several steps beyond Haavelmo’s initial vision; while the second group argues that essentially what the first group advocates was already in Haavelmo’s Probability Approach from the beginning.

      • S Demiralp, KD Hoover and SJ Perez.
      • (March, 2013).
      • Still puzzling: Evaluating the price puzzle in an empirically identified structural vector autoregression.
      • Empirical Economics
      • ,
      • 46
      • (2)
      • ,
      • 701-731.
      • [web]
      Publication Description

      The price puzzle, an increase in the price level associated with a contractionary monetary shock, is investigated in a rich, 12-variable SVAR in which various factors that have been mooted as solutions are considered jointly. SVARs for the pre-1980 and post-1990 periods are identified empirically using a graph-theoretic causal search algorithm combined with formal tests of the implied overidentifying restrictions. In this SVAR, the pre-1980 price puzzle depends on the characterization of monetary policy, and the post-1990 price puzzle is statistically insignificant. Commonly suggested theoretical resolutions to the price puzzle are shown to have causal implications inconsistent with the data. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

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  • PhD Students

    • Morten Tabor
      • 2013
    • Robert Williams
      • Status: Graduated
    • Francois Claveau
      • 2011-2013
      • Status: Graduated
  • Teaching

    • PHIL 693S.01
      • CAUSATION
      • West Duke 108A
      • M 03:05 PM-05:35 PM
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