Research

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Working Papers

• "Counterfactuals and Causal Structure."
• "Identity, Structure, and Causal Representation in Scientific Models," invited lecture at the conference on Modeling the World:  Perspectives from Biology and Economics, University of Helsinki, 28-30 May 2009; an earlier version was posted as "Identity, Structure, and Causation in Scientific Models."
• "Microfoundational Programs," invited lecture for the First International Symposium on the History of Economic Thought: “The Integration of Micro and Macroeconomics from a Historical Perspective,” University of São Paulo, Brazil, 3-5 August 2009.
• "Still Puzzling:  Evaluating the Price Puzzle in an Empirically Identified Structural Vector Autoregression."  Coauthors:  Selva Demiralp and Stephen J. Perez.
       Data Set;
       Data Documentation;
       Lag Length Tests for VAR;
       Basic SVAR Estimates;     
       Complete Basic Impulse Response Functions.
• "Was Harrod Right?" paper delivered to the Canadian Economic Association Annual Conference, Vancouver, June 2008, and to a History of Economics Society session at the Allied Social Sciences Association Annual Meetings, San Francisco, 3-5 January 2009.
• "Keynes and Economics," part III of "John Maynard Keynes of Bloomsbury:  Four Short Talks," delivered as part of the inaugural event for the Center for the History of Political Economy at Duke University, 17 February 2009.

Forthcoming

• Robert Solow and the Development of Growth Economics, Mauro Boianovsky and Kevin D. Hoover, editors; conference issue of History of Political Economy 2009, issued as hardbound volume, includes introduction "The Neoclassical Growth Model and 20th Century Economics."   Coauthor:  Mauro Boianovsky.
• "Idealizing Reduction:  The Microfoundations of Macroeconomics," forthcoming in Erkenntnis.
• "Review of Francisco Louçã's The Years of High Econometrics:  A Short History of the Generation that Reinvented Economics," forthcoming in the Journal of the History of Economic Thought.
• "When is a Model Like a Thermometer?  A Review of Marcel Boumans's How Economists Model the World into Numbers," forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Methodology.
• "Worlds Apart?  A Review of Bernt P. Stigum’s Econometrics and the Philosophy of Economics:  Theory-Data Confrontations in Economics," forthcoming in Research in the History of Economic Thought and Methodology.
• "Probability and Structure in Econometric Models." An abridged version of this paper is forthcoming in The Proceedings of the 13th International Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science to be published by King's College Publications, London.
• "Economic Theory and Causal Inference,"  forthcoming in Uskali Mäki, editor, Handbook of the Philosophy of Economics, (one volume of the Handbook of the Philosophy of Science, Dov Gabbay, Paul Thagard, and John Woods, general editors.  Amsterdam:  Elsevier/North-Holland.)

  Selected Publication

• "Milton Friedman’s Stance:  The Methodology of Causal Realism, in Uskali Mäki, editor, The Methodology of Positive Economics: Milton Friedman’s Essay Fifty Years Later.  Cambridge:  Cambridge University Press, 2009, pp. 303-320.
• "How Can Econonomics be an Inductive Science?  A Review of Julian Reiss's Error in Economics: The Methodology of Evidence-Based Economics," Economics and Philosophy 25(2), July 2009, pp. 202-206 .
• "Review of Nancy Cartwright's Hunting Causes and Using Them:  Approaches in Philosophy and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature 47(2), June 2009, pp. 493-495.
• "Empirical Identification of the Vector Autoregression:  The Causes and Effects of U.S. M2," in Jennifer L. Castle and Neil N. Shephard, editors, The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics: A Festschrift in Honour of David F. Hendry.  Oxford:  Oxford University Press, 2009, pp. 37-58.
  Coauthors:  Selva Demiralp and Stephen J. Perez.
        Data Set;
        FIML Estimates of Fully Specified System; 
        Selected Impulse-response Function."
• "Microfoundations and the Ontology of Macroeconomics." in Harold Kincaid and Donald Ross, editors, Oxford Handbook of the Philosophy of Economic Science. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009; ch. 14, pp. 386-409..
• "The Vanity of the Economist:  A Comment on Peart and Levy's 'The Vanity of the Philosopher," American Journal of Economics and Sociology 67(3), July 2008, 445-453.  Also issue in book form in Laurence S. Moss, editor.  Social Inequality, Analytical Egalitarianism and the March Towards Eugenic Explanations in the Social Sciences.  Chichester:  Wiley-Blackwell, 2008, pp. 51-60.
• "A Bootstrap Method for Identifying and Evaluating a Structural Vector Autoregression", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 70(4), 2008, 509-533. Coauthors:  Selva Demiralp and Stephen J. Perez.
• Allowing the Data to Speak Freely:  The Macroeconometrics of the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression,"  American Economic Review 98(2),May 2008. 251-255. Coauthors: Søren Johansen and Katarina Juselius.
• "Sound and Fury:  McCloskey and Significance Testing in Economics," in Journal of Economic Methodology 15(1), March 2008, 1-37. Coauthor:  Mark V. Siegler.
  [McCloskey and Ziliak's rankings of individual papers in the American Economic Review from the 1980s and 1980s for their treatment of statistical significance.
   Papers omitted from McCloskey and Ziliak's two surveys of the American Economic Review. 
  An earlier draft of "Sound and Fury" with additional material. ]
  McCloskey and Ziliak replied to Hoover and Siegler in the March 2008 issue of the Journal of Economic Methodology.  Hoover and Siegler's rejoinder is:
  "The Rhetoric of "Signifying Nothing' :  A Rejoinder to Ziliak and McCloskey," in in Journal of Economic Methodology 15(1) , March 2008, 57-68.
• "Causality in Economics and Econometrics," in Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume, editors, The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, Palgrave Macmillan, 2008. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics Online. <http://www.dictionaryofeconomics.com/article?id=pde2008_C000569>
  doi:10.1057/9780230226203.0209
• "The Methodology of Econometrics,"  in Kerry Patterson, editor, Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, vol I:  Theoretical Econometrics.  Houndsmill, Basinstoke, Hampshire:  Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 61-88.
• "Dr. Keynes:  Economic Theory in a Diagnostic Science," in Roger Backhouse and Bradley Bateman, editors, Cambridge Companion to Keynes.
• "A NeoWicksellian in a New Classical World:  The Methodology of Michael Woodford's Interest and Prices,"  Journal of the History of Economic Thought 28(2), June 2006, pp. 143-149..
• "The Past as Future:  The Marshallian Approach to Post-Walrasian Econometrics," in  David Colander, editor, Post Walrasian Macroeconomics: Beyond the Dyanamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model.  Cambridge:  Cambridge University Press. 
• The IS-LM Model:  Its Rise, Fall, and Strange Persistence, Kevin D. Hoover and Michel DeVroey, editors.  Supplement to the History of Political Economy, vol. 36, 2005.  Durham:  Duke University Press.  "Introduction," pp. 1-11.
• "Automatic Inference of the Contemporaneous Causal Order of a System of Equations," Econometric Theory, 21(1), 2005, pp. 69-77.

• "Quantitative Evaluation of Idealized Models in the New Classical Macroeconomics,” Martin R. Jones and Nancy Cartwright, editors. Idealization XII: Correcting the Model. Idealization and Abstraction in the Sciences. Poznan Studies in the Philosophy of Science and the Humanities, 2005.

• "Truth and Robustness in Cross-country Growth Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 66(5), 2004, pp. 765-798.  Coauthor:  Stephen J. Perez.   
  Data Sets  for this paper.
• "Lost Causes," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 26(2), 2004, pp. 149-164.
• "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 65(supplement), 2003, pp. 745-767. Coauthor:  Selva Demiralp.
• “Some Causal Lessons from Macroeconomics,” Journal of Econometrics, 2003.
• "Nonstationary Time Series, Cointegration, and the Principle of the Common Cause,"   British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 54(4), pp. 527-551, 2003.
• "A History of Postwar Monetary and Macroeconomics" in Jeffrey Biddle, John Davis, and Warren Samuels (eds.) The Blackwell Companion to the History of Economic Thought.  Blackwell, 2002.
• "Econometrics and Reality," in Uskali Mäki (ed.) Fact and Fiction:  Models, Realism and Social Construction. Cambridge University Press, 2002. 
• "Measuring Causes:  Episodes in the Quantitative Assessment of the Value of Money,"  History of Political Economy, 33 (Annual Supplement), 2002, pp 137-161. Coauthor:  Michael Dowell.
• Causality in Macroeconomics .  Cambridge University Press, 2001.
• The Methodology of Empirical Macroeconomics .  Cambridge University Press, 2001.
• "Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 83(4), July/August 2001, pp. 113-137.  Coauthor:  Oscar Jorda.
• "Taxing and Spending in the Long View:  The Causal Structure of U.S. Fiscal Policy After 1791," Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 52, no. 4, December 2000,  pp. 745-773.  Coauthor:  Mark V. Siegler.
• "Three Attitudes towards Data-mining,"  Journal of Economic Methodology, vol. 7, no. 2, June 2000, pp. 195-210.  ( Abstract .)  Coauthor:  Stephen J. Perez.
• "Data Mining Reconsidered:  Encompassing and the General-to-Specific Approach to Specification Search , " Econometrics Journal, vol. 2, no. 2, 1999, pp. 1-25.  Coauthor:  Stephen J. Perez.  Data Set and Matlab Programs.
• “Technology Shocks or Colored Noise? Why Real-Business-Cycle Models Cannot Explain Actual Business Cycles,” Review of Political Economy, vol. 10, no. 3, 1998, pp. 299-327.  Coauthor:  Kevin D. Salyer.
• “Evaluating ‘Real Business Cycle Realizations 1925-1995’,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Economic Policy, 1997.
• “The Limits of Business Cycle Research: Assessing the Rea-lBusiness-Cycle Model,” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1997.  Coauthors: James E. Hartley and Kevin D. Salyer.
• "After the Revolution: Paul Samuelson and the Textbook Keynesian Model," in Allin R. Cottrell and Michael S. Lawlor (eds.) New Perspectives on Keynes.  Duke University Press, 1995, annual supplement to History of Political Economy 27, 1995, pp. 183 - 216.  Coauthor:  Kerry A. Pearce.
• "Why Does Methodology Matter for Economics?" Economic Journal, vol. 105, no. 430, May 1995, pp. 115-134.
• “Is Macroeconomics for Real?”  in Uskali Mäki, editor.  The Economic World View.  Cambridge:  Cambridge University Press, 2001.  Reprinted from The Monist, 1995.  Also reprinted in John B. Davis, editor, Recent Developments in Economic Methodology.  Aldershot:  Edward Elgar, 2006.

• “Facts and Artifacts:  Calibration and the Empirical Assessment of Real-Business-Cycle Models,”  Oxford Economic Papers, March 1995.

• "Relative Wages, Rationality, and Involuntary Unemployment in Keynes's Labor Market,"
  History of Political Economy 27(4),:Winter 1995, pp. 653 - 685.
• “Six Queries on Idealization in an Empirical Context,” Idealization VI:  Poznan Studies in the Philosophy of Science and the Humanities, Bert Hamminga and Neil De Marchi, editors.  Amsterdam, Rodopi, 1994.
• "Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc:  An Evaluation of 'Does Monetary Policy Matter?' in the Spirt of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics 34(1), 1994, pp. 47-73.   Coauthor:  Stephen J. Perez.
  A rejoinder to Christina and David Romer's reply to this paper:  "Money May Matter, But How Could You Know?"Journal of Monetary Economics 34(1), 1994, pp. 89-99.   Coauthor:  Stephen J. Perez.  
• "Pragmatism, Pragmaticism, and Economic Method," in Roger Backhouse (ed.) New Directions in Economic Methodology.  London:  Routledge, 1994, pp. 286-315.
• “Econometrics as Observation: The Lucas Critique, Causality and the Nature of Econometric Inference,” Journal of Economic Methodology, June 1994. Reprinted in Daniel M. Hausman, editor. The Philosophy of Economics, 3rd. ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008.
• "Causation,Spending, and Taxes:  Sand in the Sandbox or Tax Collector for the Welfare State?" American Economic Review 82(1), March 1992, pp. 225-248.  Coauthor: Steven Sheffrin.
• “The Causal Direction Between Money and Prices: An Alternative Approach,” Journal of Monetary Economics, June 1991.

• “Scientific Research Program or Tribe?  A Joint Appraisal of Lakatos and the New Classical Macroeconomics,” in Appraising Economic Theories:  Studies in the Application of the Methodology of Research Programs,  Mark Blaug and Neil de Marchi, editors.  Aldershot:  Edward Elgar, 1991.

• “Mirowski's Screed: A Review of Philip Mirowski, More Heat Than Light: Economics as Social Physics, Physics as Nature's Economics,” Methodus, June 1991, pp. 139-145.
• "Two Types of Monetarism," Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 22, no. 1 March 1984, pp. 58-76.
• "Methodology: A Comment on Frazer and Boland, II," American Economic Review, vol. 74, no. 4, September 1984, pp. 789-792.
• “Classical Reflections on the Deficit,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Weekly Letter, October 14, 1983.  Reprinted in Ben Bernanke, editor, Readings and Cases in Macroeconomics.  New York:  McGraw-Hill, 1987.  Coauthor:  Joseph Bisignano.
• “Some Suggested Improvements to a Simple Portfolio Balance Model of Exchange Rate Determination with Special Reference to the U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar Rate,” Weltwirtschaffliches Archiv, vol. 118, no. 1, 1982, pp. 19-38.  Coauthor: Joseph Bisignano.

• “Monetary and Fiscal Impacts on Exchange Rates,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, Winter 1982.  Co-author:  Joseph Bisignano. 

• "Abduction and the New Riddle of Induction," The Monist vol. 63, no. 3, July 1980, pp. 329-341.  Coauthor:  James F. Harris.
  
  

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