From Better Data to Better Decisions

Growing up in Brazil, Assistant Professor of Economics Felipe Lobel saw firsthand how government decisions can shape people’s daily lives. 

Brazil has experienced persistent inequality alongside major shifts in economic policy. For Lobel, those realities sparked an early interest in understanding how public policy works, and what happens when it doesn’t.

“Economic policy struck me as very consequential for society,” he said. That conviction took him from his native Brazil to the United States in 2018, where he pursued a Ph.D. in economics at the University of California, Berkeley. Along the way, he found mentors who helped him transform a broad interest in policy into a research agenda centered on public economics — the study of how government taxes, spending and programs affect people, businesses and markets. 

Lobel’s work combines economic theory with large administrative datasets to study how individuals and firms respond to public policy. In plain terms, he is interested in using evidence from real-world programs to understand what works, for whom and why. 

His research has examined business taxation, cash transfers for low-income households and housing policy, often through the lens of Brazil’s largest public programs. Before beginning his doctoral studies, he also worked with tax policy in the Brazilian government — an experience that sharpened his interest in studying the tax system more rigorously. 

“My research pretty much follows that initial motivation,” he said. 

One of Lobel’s current projects looks at the Bolsa Família, a major Brazilian cash transfer program for low-income households. These types of programs are often debated politically and economically, in part because of a familiar question: If people receive direct financial support, will they stop working? 

In order to look at the question, Lobel and his collaborators examined a 2012 expansion of the program, which guaranteed that households earning less than Brazil’s extreme-poverty threshold would receive enough support to reach it. The policy created an opportunity to compare people just below the eligibility cutoff with those just above it. 

Using data that followed roughly 80 million people over 12 years, the researchers found that recipients worked more, not less. The finding runs counter to a standard economic prediction that additional income might reduce the incentive to work. 

Lobel’s team then looked for an explanation. They incorporated individual-level hospitalization data from across Brazil, examining whether the cash transfers might affect health as well as employment. Their analysis found that people receiving the transfer were less likely to be hospitalized, spent less time in the hospital when they were admitted and had lower mortality rates. 

The project suggests that financial support can help people meet basic needs and improve their health, which in turn makes it easier to participate in the workforce.

“Helping students be at the frontier of that field is going to be very rewarding. I’m looking forward to working with them.” — Felipe Lobel

For Lobel, making his research accessible to the public is essential. Theoretical models can help economists understand the mechanisms behind a policy’s effects, he said, but the results also need to be accessible to the people making and living with policy decisions. 

His path to Duke included postdoctoral appointments at Columbia University and Stanford University. He was drawn to Duke by the opportunity to join a department where people approach related questions from different directions. 

Lobel studies firms through taxation, for example, while colleagues explore firms through international trade, innovation and labor economics. The intersection of interests creates a cohesion that attracted him to the department.  

“All of the overlap makes the environment very productive, and there’s a great synergy. I’m very excited to be here.” 

This fall, Lobel is focused on completing revisions to several papers already under review. He is also looking forward to getting to know colleagues and students. Next year, he’ll teach the second-year Ph.D. public economics sequence, a course closely connected to his own field. 

“Helping students be at the frontier of that field is going to be very rewarding,” he said. “I’m looking forward to working with them.”