Yingni Guo Shows How Early Biased Hiring Decisions Affect Lifelong Outcomes

Early career setbacks don’t affect every worker the same way. For some, opportunities open back up, but for others, disadvantages compound and follow them for years. 

 Yingni Guo, new Associate Professor of Economics, uses economic theory to uncover how hiring bias and market dynamics shape those diverging paths, and what that means for inequality.

Guo looks at how economic theory can explain, and even improve, the way jobs, wages and investments take shape, and how they interact with each other. Her research sits at the intersection of economic theory and the labor market, examining how early career discrimination shapes long-term outcomes. 

Because firms (companies and organizations) often know little about a new hire’s productivity, they may favor certain groups, such as men over women, in early hiring decisions. Guo’s 2025 working paper, “Early-Career Discrimination: Spiraling or Self-Correcting?” shows that the effects of this bias depend on the type of job a person has: in “star” jobs such as those held by entertainers and athletes, talent can overcome early setbacks. 

However, in “guardian” jobs, such as those held by surgeons performing routine operations and air traffic controllers, failures are more visible than successes, and early discrimination can snowball, narrowing opportunities and shaping careers for years to come.

“The goal of the paper was to see what determines which situation is more likely to occur, and how it impacts inequality,” said Guo. “We found that the groups who are impacted during recessions are those who are already discriminated against, working in low-skill occupations.”

Another arm of Guo’s research looks at robust mechanism design, a branch of economic theory focused on writing rules and regulations that still work even when you don’t know all the details about an environment. 

“There are important policy implications here,” said Guo. “We don’t assume regulators know every detail about the market, but we aim for policies that are robust across scenarios, make sense, and are practical to implement.”

For the past year, Guo was a visiting professor from Northwestern to the department, where she got a chance to teach and see if the department was a good fit. 

Guo is looking forward to all of the opportunities Duke has to offer. “The department is strong in both theory and empirics,” she said. “As a theorist, I see real synergy here — and that’s the kind of collaboration that excites me.”

With her focus on how bias and policy shape labor markets, Guo brings a sharp theoretical lens to some of today’s most urgent economic questions. Her work not only deepens understanding of inequality but also points toward solutions.

Along with Guo, Duke Economics also hired Wendy Morrison and Christopher Walker. Chair James W. Roberts is looking forward to the way Guo and the rest of the new faculty will improve the department and Duke as a whole. 

“These new faculty bring expertise in a wide variety of subfields within the economics discipline and will also bring great energy to the department and our students,” said Roberts.