Kevin Douglas Hoover

Kevin Douglas Hoover

Professor of Economics

External Address: 
07B Social Sciences, Box 90097, Durham, NC 27708
Internal Office Address: 
Box 90097, Durham, NC 27708-0097
(919) 660-1800

Professor Hoover's research interests include macroeconomics, monetary economics, the history of economics, and the philosophy and methodology of empirical economics. His recent work in economics has focused on the application of causal search methodologies for structural vector autoregression, the history of microfoundational programs in macroeconomics, and Roy Harrod's early work on dynamic macroeconomics. In philosophy, he has concentrated on issues related to causality, especially in economics, and on reductionism -- the philosophical counterpart to microfoundations. Recent publications include:

  • "Trygve Haavelmo's Experimental Methodology and Scenario Analysis in a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression" (Econometric Theory, 2015), 
  • "Reductionism in Economics:  Intentionality and Eschatological Justification in the Microfoundations of Macroeconomics" (Philosophy of Science 2015), 
  • "Mathematical Economics Comes to America:  Charles S. Peirce’s Engagement with Cournot’s Recherches sur les Principes Mathematiques de la Théorie des Richesses" (Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2015), 
  • "The Genesis of Samuelson and Solow’s Price-Inflation Phillips Curve" (History of Economics Review, 2015), 
  • "Solow's Harrod: Transforming Cyclical Dynamics into a Model of Long-run Growth" (European Journal of the History of Economic Thought 2015), 
  • "In the Kingdom of Solovia:  The Rise of Growth Economics at MIT, 1956-1970" (History of Political Economy 2014), 
  • “Still Puzzling: Evaluating the Price Puzzle in an Empirically Identified Structural Vector Autoregression” (Empirical Economics, 2014),
  • "On the Reception of Haavelmo's Econometric Thought" (Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2014) – winner of the History of Economics Society Best Paper Award in 2015.  


  • Ph.D., University of Oxford (United Kingdom) 1985
  • M.A., University of Oxford (United Kingdom) 1983
  • B.A., University of Oxford (United Kingdom) 1979

Demiralp, S., and K. D. Hoover. “Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 65, no. SUPPL. (December 1, 2003): 745–67. Full Text

Hoover, K. D. “Some causal lessons from macroeconomics.” Journal of Econometrics 112, no. 1 (January 1, 2003): 121–25. Full Text Open Access Copy

Hoover, K. D., and M. E. Dowell. “Measuring causes: Episodes in the quantitative assessment of the value of money.” History of Political Economy 33, no. SUPPL. (January 1, 2001): 159–61. Full Text Open Access Copy

Hoover, K. D. “Introduction.” Journal of Economic Methodology 8, no. 2 (January 1, 2001): 167. Full Text

Hoover, K. D., and M. V. Siegler. “Taxing and spending in the long view: The causal structure of US fiscal policy, 1791-1913.” Oxford Economic Papers 52, no. 4 (January 1, 2000): 745–73. Full Text

Hoover, K. D., and S. J. Perez. “Three attitudes towards data mining.” Journal of Economic Methodology 7, no. 2 (January 1, 2000): 195–210. Full Text

Hartley, J. E., K. D. Hoover, and K. D. Salyer. “The limits of business cycle research: Assessing the real business cycle model.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 13, no. 3 (January 1, 1997): 34–54. Full Text

Hoover, K. D. “Econometrics as observation: The Lucas critique and the nature of econometric inference.” Journal of Economic Methodology 1, no. 1 (January 1, 1994): 65–80. Full Text

Hoover, K. D., and S. J. Perez. “Money may matter, but how could you know?Journal of Monetary Economics 34, no. 1 (January 1, 1994): 89–99. Full Text