V. Joseph Hotz

V. Joseph Hotz

Arts and Sciences Professor of Economics

External Address: 
243 Social Sciences, Box 90097, Durham, NC 27708-0097
Internal Office Address: 
Box 90097, Durham, NC 27708-0097
(919) 660-1841

Professor Hotz specializes in the subjects of applied econometrics, labor economics, economic demography, and economics of the family. His studies have investigated the impacts of social programs, such as welfare-to-work training; the relationship between childbearing patterns and labor force participation of U.S. women; the effects of teenage pregnancy; the child care market; the Earned Income Tax Credit; and other such subjects. He began conducting his studies in 1977, and has since published his work extensively in books and leading academic journals. Many of his projects have been funded by grants awarded by the National Institute of Health and the National Science Foundation. He is currently completing a project with Duncan Thomas on, “Preference and Economic Decision-Making” under a grant from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. His recent works also include, “Tax Policy and Low-Wage Labor Markets: New Work on Employment, Effectiveness and Administration” with John Karl Scholz and Charles Mullin; and “Designing New Models to Explain Family Change and Variation” with S. Philip Morgan. Along with his duties as an independent researcher, Professor Hotz has also held positions as a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the National Poverty Center, the Institute for the Study of Labor, and the Institute for Research on Poverty. He is presently a member of the Committee on National Statistics for the National Academy of Sciences’ Research Council.


  • Ph.D., University of Wisconsin at Madison 1980
  • M.S., University of Wisconsin at Madison 1977
  • B.A., University of Notre Dame 1972

Arcidiacono, P, Hotz, VJ, Maurel, A, and Romano, T. "Recovering Ex Ante Returns and Preferences for Occupations Using Subjective Expectations Data." Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper, no. 178 (October 1, 2014).


Cahuc, P, Hotz, VJ, Gielen, AC, and Zimmermann, KF. "Editorial: IZA Journal of Labor Economics." Iza Journal of Labor Economics 1, no. 1 (December 1, 2012). Full Text

Arcidiacono, P, Hotz, VJ, and Kang, S. "Modeling college major choices using elicited measures of expectations and counterfactuals." Journal of Econometrics 166, no. 1 (January 1, 2012): 3-16. Full Text

Joseph Hotz, V, and Xiao, M. "The Impact of Regulations on the Supply and Quality of Care in Child Care Markets." The American Economic Review 101, no. 5 (August 2011): 1775-1805. Full Text

Fajnzylber, E, Hotz, VJ, and Sanders, SG. "An economic model of amniocentesis choice." Advances in Life Course Research 15, no. 1 (March 2010): 11-26. Full Text

Crump, RK, Hotz, VJ, Imbens, GW, and Mitnik, OA. "Dealing with limited overlap in estimation of average treatment effects." Biometrika 96, no. 1 (March 1, 2009): 187-199. Full Text

Crump, RK, Joseph Hotz, V, Imbens, GW, and Mitnik, OA. "Nonparametric tests for treatment effect heterogeneity." Review of Economics and Statistics 90, no. 3 (August 1, 2008): 389-405. Full Text Open Access Copy

Hao, L, Hotz, VJ, and Jin, GZ. "Games Parents and Adolescents Play: Risky Behaviors, Parental Reputation, and Strategic Transfers." Economic Journal (London, England) 118, no. 528 (April 2008): 515-555. Full Text