Ph.D. Student Aaron Kolb Publishes Solo-Authored Paper

18 May 2015 10:35AM

Duke Economics Ph.D. student Aaron Kolb has had his solo research published in the May issue of the Journal of Economic Theory (JET). Kolb, a current fifth year, authored a paper on “Optimal Entry Timing,” which applies game theory to market entry outcomes by using state-of-the-art dynamic continuous-time modeling techniques.

“It is very rare that one of our students publishes a solo-authored paper in a major field journal like JET, years before graduating,” said Professor Attila Ambrus, Kolb’s primary faculty advisor. “It proves that Aaron was ready to produce frontier research by the time he completed the Ph.D. program course requirements. It also shows that he has a good sense of what research question is interesting, and that he has the stamina to complete a paper and then guide it through the hurdles of the publication procedure.”

The Ohio native came to Duke Economics with experience in finance and a strong background in math and economics from Yale University. “I always liked the elegance of math, but it wasn’t until after I had taken courses in algorithms and game theory that I realized it could be found in real-world applications,” he said.

Kolb’s primary area of focus is microeconomic theory, particularly in dynamic games of learning and private information. He credits several members of the faculty at the economics department and Fuqua School of Business with mentoring him during his time here, but one such professor, Brendan Daley, has been instrumental to this particular research.

In his paper, Kolb introduces tools previously developed by Daley and Brett Green of UC Berkeley to the market entry setting, thereby allowing him to study games in which players have different levels of access to private and public information.

“In most real situations, people have some private information, and this has a large impact on outcomes. These are harder to study because everything a player does might convey information,” he said.

The specific situation Kolb presents involves a player of privately known strength who chooses when to enter a market, and an incumbent who must decide whether to compete or concede. Information about the potential player is revealed publicly through a news process and his own actions. 

This research has the potential to be impactful in the field of microeconomic theory. According to Kolb, one of his contributions is a simple refinement for dynamic games that could be applied to other scenarios. He also offers a few ways of keeping “off-path” events — unexpected actions — under control.

Kolb previously gained experience in the research process by working closely with Professors Vincent Conitzer and Ambrus as a coauthor. When asked what advice he might have for other economics Ph.D. students hoping to publish their own research, he said: “First, keep working on a project even, or especially, after all the ‘low-hanging fruit‘ is picked, because that’s when surprising results come. Second, try to write something that you would enjoy reading; it’s easy to forget this when slogging through the hard parts.” 

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