This survey is conducted by Jon Hilsenrath, a visiting scholar at Duke University and former Wall Street Journal economics editor and correspondent, in partnership with the Duke Department of Economics.
The survey is conducted four times a year ahead of meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy body. We survey former Fed governors, former regional bank presidents, and staff to officials during the week leading up to Federal Open Market Committee meetings in March, June, September, and December. Each survey follows the same format and includes one or two special, topical questions.
Federal Reserve decisions about short-term interest rates and its own balance sheet have enormous consequences for inflation, unemployment, financial stability, and global asset values. Its use of emergency lending powers also impact the health and stability of the global financial system. The U.S. central bank’s powers and its influence on the economy and markets are thus a regular source of debate and discussion in financial markets, policy circles, academia, and news media. Few people have better insight into the Fed’s policies and processes than the people who have worked there over time.
Our goal with this survey is to better inform a wide range of global debates about the Fed, including short-term policy decisions and the economic outlook, in addition to longer-run issues of importance to central banking, economics, and finance. We ask the group regular questions about the economic and interest rate outlook in the way they are asked inside the institution. Our goal is to provide even-handed insight into a complicated world, not to advance any preconceived agenda.
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Duke alumnus Jon Hilsenrath previously served as economics editor and correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, where he has written about economics and finance for 26 years. He worked as a writer and editor in Hong Kong, New York, and Washington, D.C. Many of his stories focused on causes and consequences of economic and financial crises. He was a Pulitzer Prize finalist in 2014 for his coverage of the Federal Reserve; part of a WSJ team that was a Pulitzer finalist in 2009 for coverage of the financial crisis; and contributed on-the-ground reporting to the WSJ’s 9/11 coverage, which won a Pulitzer in 2002. He graduated from Duke University in 1989 and was a Knight-Bagehot Fellow and M.B.A. graduate from Columbia Business School in 1996.