The recent events in the Middle East have many around the world anxiously watching to see the outcome of the unrest. Professor Timur Kuran, Egyptian-American Karim Foda and Egyptian Ahmed Abdel-Wahab offer their insights into the situation in three separate interviews.
An expert on the economic history of the Middle East, Kuran has written extensively on the region, most recently in a new book which addresses why the Middle East has fallen behind dramatically in living standards, technology, and economic institutions. In a brief interview with Duke News, Kuran offers insight into the power struggles in the Middle East.
Watch Kuran's video interview (right) or read the transcript below. He has also written an article published Feb. 8 which offers more context and explanation of the current situation facing the Arab world.
Power Struggles in the Muslim World (Feb. 1): Professor Timur Kuran says
Arab rulers have underestimated revolutionary undercurrent among their people.
Kuran: "These societies were generally perceived as stable because the populations were docile and for many decades they had lived under repression. And there was no reason to believe that it couldn't go on for many more years.
In situations of this sort, where you have an unhappy population and a repressive regime, if the population somehow perceives that the repression has been lessened, the opposition that has been submerged for a long time can suddenly break out into the open and start building on itself.
The fall of the Tunisian regime signaled to other Arab populations who are living under similar conditions, under similar regimes, that perhaps their own regimes were just as vulnerable.
In some other countries, Syria and Jordan are examples, leaders are trying to get ahead of events. The Jordanian king fired his cabinet today and promised reforms trying to get ahead of the swelling crowds, to appear strong, to appear to be taking the initiative rather than begin ruled by the crowd."
Learn more about Professor Kuran's work at his website or read his most recent article on the situation in the Middle East.
Interview with Egyptian-American Alum Karim Foda (Feb. 2)
Egyptian-American Karim Foda works as a senior research assistant at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. He graduated from Duke's Master's Program in Economics in 2007. The son of Egyptian parents who moved to the U.S. when he was two years old, Foda visited Egypt regularly in his youth, staying in the Maadi suburb of Cairo. He also lived in the country for two years as a young teenager. He continues to have close ties to Egypt, as he has many relatives and friends there.
Foda offered the following thoughts on Egypt in a telephone interview.
Foda: "I've been watching the situation very closely. I've been talking to family and friends there, over the last few days. It's been a little hard to reach them, of course, but we've been able to get through on land lines. . . .
It's been very exciting and hopeful to see. I'm very proud, I've been feeling very positive emotions while at the same time mixed with a lot of uncertainty and worry about where everything is going to go because the stakes are so high. But the positive signs have given me strong confidence as the week has gone on. For the most part, the events have been peaceful until today. I've wished that I could have been there in the past week. I've been glued to the screen. . . .
As an Egyptian, to see my own people, my own country go through this, to overcome all this fear and complaining that the government won't let us come out to speak and protest . . . . now there's a big strong wave. . .
It's a genuine people's movement, really - it's not a special interest movement, it's not a religious movement - it's a movement against Mubarak and the current regime, but it's more so a movement for democracy and freedom and Egyptians taking their country back. . . .
Egypt is in the center of the world stage right now, everybody is looking . . .for a country like Egypt that historically has been a very influential leader in the Middle East, for Egypt to do this, might have implications throughout the region. . .
In regards to the economy, in the short term, of course, these events are hurtful. Tourism is obviously hurt, and financial markets are struggling, of course, . . . But in the long term, I see these events as inevitable, if they didn't happen, the economy would have just carried along as it has, unemployment would continue to be high, inequality would continue to grow. In the long term, I think it will be beneficial to the economy if Egypt moves toward a real democracy."
Email from Egyptian Ahmed Adbel-Wahab (Feb.4)
Egyptian Ahmed Adbel-Wahab graduated from Duke's Master's Program in Economics in 2008. He works and lives in Cairo in the investments department of an Egyptian multinational called Orascom Construction Industries, whose office building complex was slightly hit by last week's chaos during the security vacuum on Friday, Jan. 28th. Here he offers his summary of the recent Egyptian events:
Adbel-Wahab: "Egypt got wild since Jan. 25th, young people agreed on Facebook to set up a riot and to the surprise of all, hundreds of thousands joined.
Jan. 28th was round 2, with millions in the streets, the police were using force, as usual, to try to kill the riots (many police cars were simply driving through the crowd killing 300 in total on Jan. 28th) but by 5pm people were so many that the police fled. Most police stations were burned in most cities (people hate the police because over the years they have been torturing anyone against the regime,) and the ruling party offices were burned. By 11pm, the army took control of the security. Unlike the police, the army in Egypt is well respected and is neutral. Since Jan. 28th, the army is in the streets and a curfew is in place: from 5pm to 7am no one is allowed in the streets except media and civil services. So since Jan. 28th, I didn't go to work.
Before the army took control of all streets, people were defending their own houses and properties from the thieves and criminals that found an opportunity when the police disappeared. In fact, it is now pretty obvious that this was the regime's plan: to withdraw the police and open the prisons so that people could think that the regime is the only one who can guarantee the nation's security. But the people all over Egypt got together and formed checkpoints in the streets and protected their own streets and caught a lot of prisoners and handed them to the army.
Some gas stations ran out of gas, long lines in grocery stores, especially when people's expectations are pessimistic they tend to shop even more, driving prices up. But the most serious concern for everybody was the security vacuum, in every street in Egypt, neighbors got to know each other to form teams and shifts to secure their homes 24/7. Since Tuesday, the police is gradually resurfacing but only for traffic and criminal work, they don't go near the riots.
The banks and stock market are also closed since Jan. 28th. Banks will open on Sunday (the weekend here is Friday and Saturday,) and the stock market later during the week. Daily withdrawal limits will be in place to ease the pressure on bank liquidity. On the economic front, tourism is down and won't pick up for a while. This sector represents 15% of Egypt's GDP and secures 2.5 million jobs. The stock market lost 23% in value (about 20 billion USD) during the last 2 working days on Jan 26th and 27th. Some firms and government offices resumed work 3 days ago. But as long as the army and curfew are in place, normal life can't return.
After failed attempts [to stop the rioting], the president made a few and late concessions such as finally appointing a vice president and changing the government, but the people want only one thing: to end the entire regime, change the constitution and have free and fair elections in September.
Now the situation in Egypt is delicate and complicated. Egypt is a main US ally in the region. It's a direct neighbor with Israel, and a fragile peace treaty between both nations is crucial for US policy. For the US and the West in general, Egypt can not be lost to the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) movement at any cost. The MB is included in the mass in the streets, estimates range from 10% to 20% of the people. Egypt is the 2nd recipient of US aid right after Israel, which means the US can pressure the Egyptian army to convince Mubarak to step down and let his vice president take over till September, which is the date for the next presidential elections.
Today is seen as the last round, millions of peaceful demonstrators are in the streets demanding the president to step down, which is also what the US is trying to do from its side. But many other people are also worried about what may happen if he leaves, and therefore they prefer to keep him until September.
The bottom line: a real and strong democracy is rising, but it won't be easy."
For more Duke perspectives on the situation in the Middle East, see videos of faculty interviews on Duke on Demand.
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